Impacts assessment due to climate change on the coconut industry in Sri Lanka

Abstract

The impact due to expected climate on the national coconut production and the kernel products of coconut is studied under global emission scenarios AIFl, A2 and Bl using four global circulation models (GCMM). Future climate projection showed increasing trends for air temperature during the first quarter of the year. The expect climate change will have adverse socio-economic implications on coconut production and on national economy. The coconut production during 2025 under all three emission scenario would not sufficient to cater all stakeholders in the coconut industry. Of the different sectors, the desiccated coconut industry will be greatly affected during 2025.