GREEN HOUSE GAS MITIGATING OPTIONS FOR THE SRI LANKAN POWER SECTOR Master of Engineering A. R. Ranasinghe 072437 September, 2000 72437 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Global Warming due to increased amount of anthropogenic (created by man) GHG emissions has been a hoi lv debated sub|ect discussed in various forums. Repercussions due to this increasing global temperature range from outbreaks of diseases to mass inundation of land due to sea level rise. To respond to these threats arising out of Global Warming phenomenon, the international community has already undertaken some measures to curtail the emission of GHGs within stable limits. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)was adopted in May1192. during. Rio Earth summit held in June 1992. So far five conferences of Parties (COP) to the convention have been held. At the third Conference of parties to the UNFCCC held in Kyoto, Japan in 1997..a consensus decision was taken to adopt a protocol, under which industrialized countries will reduce their combined G l lG emissions by at least 5.2% compared to the 1990 levels, during the period of 2008- 2012. The Kyoto Protocol introduced three flexibility mechanisms to achieve this objective : Clean Development mechanism (Article 12), Joint implementation (Article 6). and Emission Trading (Article 17) Sri Lanka is a developing country with a relatively low amount of GHG emissions at present. It has the capacity to participate in CDM projects. It is first necessary to assess the potential for prospective CDM projects in the country, before actual participation, once working solutions are devised ior the implementation of the Kyoto protocol. Once the implementation stage has been reached, main developing countries would be competing to attract the attention of the developed countries b\ offering an array of GHG mitigating projects in their respective countries. A market would therefore evolve where investments by the developed countries would be primarily targeting the low cost projects with high GHG mitigating potential in the developing countries. It is necessary for Sri Lanka to identify the prospective GHG mitigating projects in the country in various sectors. the GHG mitigating potential of such projects should be studied in the light of underlying financial and technological parameters and constraints and a countrywise database should he devised. The Power Sector would constitute a significant portion of the total GFIG mitigating potential in the country. This study aims to identify the best project options in the Sri Lankan Power Sector that could benefit from the CDM mechanism once workable solutions are found for the implementation of the Kyoto protocol. GHG M ITIGATING OPTIONS FOR the Sri Lankan Power Sector Page /:-/ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I 1\ j,IJ Ill C.\pn:ss Ill,\ urmosr wa rirudc ro rile ~upen isor~ . Dr. P.D.C. \.Vijerllttll_¥.1 and .\lr \\ .I ( ...,_ (·ernanclo tor their e:--cdlent gr11dance. ad' ice and encouragement gi' e11 rn nt..: 1111 ,uc.:.~·,,rutl: completing this stud). '-pec•al ~rawude and rhanks goc" to the Commiuee on Ell\. iron mental Polic) and \l.tna~emclll !CEPOi\1) nfrhc \11n1~tr: oflrngation and Ptmcr for initiating thi:, ">tud: \l,tn: tltank~ goes to Ceylon Elcctncit) Hoard (C[8). tor pro' icling compurutg and othc1 h>ghti~.: rc-.,ource~. ./ I \\,,It ttl thanh. Ms. T.A.K Ja)asekera. Chief Engineer- (ieneration Plan ning Branch. l LB ;tlld the e11 t ire Gene ration Plann ing team for the conti nued :-.upport and encnuragc111 <.:nt. \pcc1;d tha11b goes to f'vl r. P.V .I.P .l aya ti..,sa fnr hi-; uscl"ul ~u ppnrt in formulati ng the 1)~\1 ... ;1-.,c, 11wd !"or the study. \pcLiai thank:-. also goes £\) \lr. P . .l. Joseph. l'vl1 nistr: uf \cicncc and l'cchntllug: l .t~l !liP\ 1d 11g u-.,eful information regarding th..: dcndw pm\t.:r tlptltllt. \l.1n: thanb arc due to \Jr. 'iu1111h Fernando. Rc~ourcL"- \lanagcmcnt AsstlCiatc-., tl'\ t) I td o~nd \lr. I \n:adasa. Project \lana~er. l [L3 pilot \\ ind Pn~jcct ar llambabtlwt.t l{lr th~u '-''Ill n hutllllh 111 de\ e/opin!! the \\ 111d pn\\ er scenano li..lr this sill d) . I "''It ttl C\tm.:-,, 1ny appreciation Ill Dr. I dal.. 1.\i:.unbalapitl)il. ''ho acted a-., the e\tcmal ~·\allliiiCI. l(,r C\ aluarion llf thi-., prL~jcct .utd hi-, usl:rul -.,ugt!c..,tions ;utd n.'marl..-., l{lr furrh~·1 ~·lllt.JilLL"IllCil h. I 111;dl:. I \\ i:-. lt to express Il l) grat it ude to lltillt uja. 111~ \\ ik. and m: parents l1'r tit~· ~llt.:uuragcnh:n t and mora l support gi' en l1l 111 c durin g th i ~ -., tudy. I a h1l appreciate \ 1tllara. 111~ d;n1~ h tcr. l\.1r bearin g up'' ith 111 1: for ll:i ting t h~.: pr~.:ciom. 'd(/(llh·ti111e' tn lt ..:l p 1111.: Ctllllpk t ~.= tl11' \\ t>rk. ~ ( ·n111c11ts ,\11111:\~'o LJ-.t nt' I abl~-; U-,r PI 1-i~ure~ \~rl\11\ nh EM·nuh l' ~umnutn· I. I n t.-od ucti on 1.1 ( ill1lx!l \\'arming and Rc..,ponse b~ vlanl\ind 1.1 Wh~ GHG Mitigation is Important? . 1.2 What are Greenhouse Ciasc-;'? .1.3 Global Warming. Is it rea l '? Clobal Warming. The hi ture 1.1 .4 I I) Threat Posed by the Globa l Wa rm ing l.h Response Strategies 1.2 l ,,untn Come.\t 1.2.1 l kmand Structure 1.:::.::: Sri Lanka's Position in the Global (rH(j Sccnano cnd ro I' ower Scenario - I lrllmd rr tinn l Jendro 1\m cr in Sri Lan"n -.2.1 Pre sc 111 <; ra Ills L.md _,\ \.ailabilit\ - "' ~ \.R.l. species iderHrlicd Planting and linn csung. - -.. "" F ncrg~ Potent in I - .=..c, Fmph1~ ment Pri...: ing I ~:chnnl11g) Optrlllh - ; I Direct Cnmbu~tiun "-.~ ... tern.., ' ' \ Jasi ticarion -..y ... tcms - I \tulh n11:thodology and Par;unctcr~ X. L \'(; ~n·nario '\I X~ ,, . ,, ' X-I lrrtwductinn \\hat i-.. Liqudied l\atural (ias (Ll\u) ·~ I '-.\J and ~ri Lul"a (oil( I Reduction Potential of '-.at ural (ias : _;/ ... • ---- ~ - I I - I 4- I :. - ::- ::- - h - I C1 - I (l - 2 II - ~ 7 - I - - I - - I - - . -- . - - ..j - ' X- X X I ' - X ... ' - X -- -- -- ,,.,..:. -. I -~I l --o I <)-01 ~ -Ill ~ · Ill r·o1 r -111 ~ -( ll I -Ill -(l I -(, S:l:HJ.)J,),I ;)~I uosuudwn.) IIHII_I -Ill JJ~)I put: 1•< 1 •l o I I)'\ I ; Ill ~'.I!HI::>(I 101 J1lll \\ : o I SIIO~ld() J\~(1 :: 0 I OJp.\H Jul't!J\ l () l IIO!SSn:>S!(l (lUI! \lJII":l}l O!.lP.ll::l:lS . ). )~)I OIJUII;:l:l\ Jl() Ill Annexes \2 ! I \1.'>1!11~ and Committed Jl~dro 1\l\\er Planh \2.2 I kt;u-.. nf F:-.i ... ting. and Cl1111mllled Thermal Pll\\l!r Plants \2 ; t 'lar;Kt~ristic~ of Thermal Po"er Plants \2 .; ( .1p11.d l I)St Detai b l)f Cultlidate I henna I Ptm cr Plalll~ \-1 .1 \-1 : \-1 ~ \ ll I I ••re-:ast for !\:umber of Consumers Under each Categor;. I ,1,1d 1:1lrecast- Lighting D~M Case I .Pad hm~cast -Total DSivl Ca~e < iluhal < >perating v\'ind Capaci t;. .l ,- 1. 1.11 ')it~:. and Plant Spec1c-. {_ nns1dered 111thc pil1ll D..:ndm proJCCl ~ l ':t!.!l' \' \.., - ' \2 \2- \ ~ . \-I 2 \ -1 - ~ \l1 - I \ - - I', .. List of Tables 1.1 \' ital Statistics on System Demand I 2 ( ·,,unrr::-- \Vise Comparison of CO:! 1:-rni-,sions 2 I l 'haracteri.,tics of ruels t_,,ad Fore-:ast for the B,\L Ca.,~ .::. ~ H,1..,11.: ( nmmon Paramell.:r., li.)r 'amHI'> ~c~.:narios 2.-1 Pa"t T & 0 E.xpenditure .... ~ I raction tl!'(arbon Oxidiscd .... (l I IICilllll'tllled Emission Factors b) Plant r echnology . 1 .~.I ( ·haracreri stics of l lyd ro Generating Plants Cons idered as bpansion Candidate:- ; ..., I h dro Plants- Ras ic Cosh \ \ I h dro Plant Costs used for tht: Stud~ -1 I l'l:llt:tration Le\ el- HtHI~eholds t .:: l'cnetrarion Lc\ td - lndustnal & Commercial I 3 t_ ''"I t)f ln-:andescent Replacemelll~ b~ (. rLs -1 -l t ,, ... t parameter-; for Rclngerator'> and ,\ir-Conditioners -l ~ I 111al Di..,counted Ctht \umnH.:r~ tlf D\1\ I Option" " I l'lanncd i .• l ... ~ Rcduct it)ll ScheiiiC " .:: l';t-.1 '), ... tl.'lll Lo::.scs .; ~ I Pa< l 1:orccast li.H· tlw Loss Reduction ~c~.:na rio (>. I \\ ind Ctpac ily Addit ion Program l hdl'acrcnsric::. of Lkndro-Thcrmal Lnih Consitkred II P :t:,!t' I - 5 I - - .., - I .... "" . ~ 2 - I .., .; - - - ... " - - . ' .... I - ' I ' I ..j - .:: I - ~ I - : I I -; ... •-t . ' - :-. .; .... ..; .. " (\ - I'..J·..:,.., ' X. l \ 'haractt.:rist ics of L0JG fired Therma l Units Considered X.~ l arhon content and !!eat Value nf 1-'os~ il Fue ls 11 I \ haracteri"tics of Oi l fired Therma l Units Considered 'I,: \. ha ract~.::r~stics of I CCC Units Cnnsidered I fl I ··)"'em C,hr Summer~ tor (JH(i mitigating option-. l•l: "11111 111er~ tnr GHG mitigatmg op11o1h Ill : 'IIIII Iller) - ( o:-t of per unit CO:! Ill Ill gallon .1 ~ X - X - l) - I \) - ~ II; - I 0 - = I 0- - l'd~c. List of Figures 1.1 Change in Daily Load Curve Over the Years 1.2 Hydro-Thermal Share in the Recent Past 1.3 Consmnption Share Among Different Consumer Categories 5.1 Comparison of Load Forecasts for BAU and No Loss Reduction Cases 6.1 Annual Distribution of Wind Energy Availability 8.1 Global LNG Demand 8.2 Global LNG Supply 8.3 LNG Supply Sources for Sri Lanka 10.1 Summery- Total Cost and C02 Emissions 10.2 Final Comparison of Mitigation Options / •. ;J Page 1-6 1-6 1-7 5-3 6-3 8- J 8-2 8-3 10-3 10- 7 Page vu t ·c·y \ '1)\1 t 'EB 1 ECI1 1r I ( ) I) I I'( l\ \I : RL 1" r ,,, 1.\[.\ ILK I L.\ II'CC II'P 1'- \1 lsP\ I [)<._ \. ( I I lLP . I< d_P I ll (.'1 It\:\ I 1r I'\ '-I R -... i \\ \\ \\1) \\8 ACRONYMS Combined Cyc le Po,-.cr Pla nt Clean Deve lopment Mechanism Ce; ion l:.lectricity f3oard Central r.ng.lllecring Con::.ultanc~ l3ureau Co-;L ln::.urancc and Freight l'onfi.!rcnce of rhe Part tes l e~ ion Pl·twleum CorpPratiPn Oemand '> tde \ lanagemenr f·.mtsston Rcducrton l ntr lilnbal Ln' tronment Fa~.:tlir~ (,as T urbtnc Internal ton a I ,\ Wtn1c L.:ner!!' A !!t't1C\ Interest Dur111g Cnnstrucr1;1;1 ;I . lnternattonal Energy :\gene~ Inter-< iO\ ernnll: n t:-~1 Pa ne l fnr l'linwrc Chang~: lndepcntk nt Pt)\\ cr Prt1tlu~.:c r 1\.chclgamu O~tt and 1\ 1 ;\ s~e l i;-a Oya 1\.clanatis-,a i>o\\er Station l.oad lJura tton CurH: L1qudied 1\aturallJa'> l.tl..,s < )f L11ad Pwbabilll~ Ltltl!! rerm l!eneratton L:-.pansiun J>bn .... < h er-,ca-; LctmOtllll.: Ctl-tlpcrarion l·und < >perat ton and \1alntcnan~o:L' Plant I a~o:ttlr Pre ... cnt \ aluc ~rt I .ut~an ){upcc., .-\ llll:rtc:tll D11llar ... \\ 1cn .-\ ut tllll